If North Carolina looks comfortable for Trump, then all the other state polling is probably wrong, which means Trump has a chance.” With Bernie’s polling on my mind, I gave my 60 to 65 percent prediction of a Hillary victory with this qualifier… But there did seem to be a Trumpian portion of the Democrat electorate that polling was not picking up on.Įarly on the evening of November 8, I was graciously invited to appear on the anti-Trump Daily Wire Election Night podcast and, of course, asked to make a prediction. This was not as true for Trump during the Republican primaries, so the Bernie results were not completely comforting. In key states, media polling was, again and again, underestimating Bernie’s support. Same with West Virginia and North Carolina. Clinton won Pennsylvania, but Bernie did better than expected. Though there was not much up-to-date polling (because Hillary was certain to win by a wide margin), Bernie won a huge upset in Minnesota. In Indiana, Bernie was down seven points, he ended up winning by five. The polls in Michigan were not just wrong, they were as wrong as wrong can be.īy the time Election Night rolled around, the Real Clear Politics poll of polls showed a Clinton lead of a whopping 21.4 percent over Bernie Sanders.īy the time it was all over, though, Sanders won Michigan by 1.5 percent. Something worth paying attention to had happened in that key state during the Democrat primary. The one great hope I clung to was Michigan. On Election Night 2016, I was about 60 to 65 percent sure Hillary would win, and therefore emotionally preparing myself for all the hideous things that would come with such a thing - fascist Obamacare enshrined, further bake-the-cake mandates strangling my Christian faith, a more empowered central government, corruption galore, and a whole lot of Benghazis.
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